Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
